So what do you think is going to happen this year? This is the most common question asked at the beginning of every year. No one knows, it’s all guess work. Who in 2013 predicted Ebola, V bottoms, a down December, oil crashing, the destruction of high growth tech names in March/April, the sell off in energy names, etc…
- You don’t need to know what is going to happen 12 months from now to make money in the market.
- You don’t need to know what is going to happen 12 months from now to outperform the market.
- You don’t need to know what is going to happen 12 months from now to avoid a deep correction.
- You don’t need to buy the biggest winner in the SP500 everyday to make money.
- You don’t need to be on the right side of every move to make money.
- The fact that you don’t know what is going to happen 12 months from now doesn’t mean that you give up on stocks and buy a little bit of every ETF in the world and hope that one of them sticks, cookie cutter global asset allocation has been horrible recently.
- Many who have forecasts get married to those forecasts and refuse to adapt to the changes that might happen to change the original forecast. This is why there is a very thin line between having conviction and being stubborn.
- The fact that you have no idea what is going to happen 12 months from now is not a stumbling block, or a hinder, or a curse, or a detriment. etc…
- You don’t need to know the future to make money.
- In 2013 I had no idea what was going to happen in 2014 and that didn’t change the way I went about things one bit.
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