There’s absolutely no reason why you should try to avoid the unavoidable. Losses, draw-downs, are part of the game, they happen on a consistent basis. You can do all the research, all the work humanly possible and you still cannot avoid losses and draw-downs. Stop wasting your time trying to do it. That does not mean you ride everything down, take your losses, live to fight another day, but don’t waste your valuable time trying to find the perfect system that tries to avoid the unavoidable. “Buy green, sell red, we never lost money,” etc… is all a fantasy
Believe it or not, Tepper attributes his success to these drawdowns. He has been quoted as saying that his fund’s returns are “consistently inconsistent.” And that “it’s one of the cornerstones of our success.” Every year he lost 20% or more, he came back with at least a 60% return the following year (in two of those years, 100% plus).