frankz

Here are some of the headlines, surveys, stats, etc..that have been going around the stocktwitter sphere over the last couple of days;1.  Number of fund managers that have taken out protection against a market slump hit a record high.2.  The National Association Of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index (NAAIM) shows a similar story.  Active managers have the least amount of equity exposure since the October swoon, all this while the indices are near all time highs.  Investors Intelligence survey and the American Association are showing the same lack of enthusiasm for the market.3.  We also have a record amount of [...]

Investors intelligence numbers come out every week, very simply they ask a few people if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the market for the next 6 months.  A big deal is made out of this every week by a few people.  I'm not so sure how important or even useful this data may be due to; the amount of people surveyed and the fact that it's an opinion.  The opinion might be one that is weakly held, or one that is not actionable.  On the second chart you see what investors are actually doing with their money, which [...]

Every time people talk about casinos for the most part they mention WYNN and Las Vegas Sands. Those 2 stocks have fallen on hard times partly due to their overseas business (MACAU) which was a tremendous windfall when they first enter that market.  Boyd Gaming (BYD) and Penn National (PENN) 2 companies that decided to stay at home saw their stock suffered at the beginning but now are benefiting from the lack of overseas exposure.Technically speaking BYD and PENN are very close to breaking out and as the street starts to realize their recent outperformance which should see sort of [...]

The market continues to shrug along all time high levels while underneath the surface the breadth is telling us that its walking on a tight rope.  Based on the stats that I follow the market’s breadth is extremely narrow with a couple of sectors leading the way, specifically Biotechnology/healthcare.  So far every single bearish divergence over the last few years have resolved themselves to the upside with stocks catching up to the indices.  Many years ago the type of divergence we are seeing now for the most part led to some form of correction in the indices, a normal correction, [...]

Advice for young traders is popular hashtag right now on twitter (financial), I think it should be "Advice For All Traders".  Regardless of how long you been in the business of trading you will run into many of the same problems that a young trader will.  You will have stretches when you are not in tune with the market, you will suffer periods of draw-downs that can last days to months, your strategy might stop working and because of that you will be filled with doubt, etc... How you deal with these issues is more than likely what separates a [...]

Ever since American Airlines came out of bankruptcy and started to trade publicly again hedgefunds jumped all over it.  Effectively the stock became a hedgefund hotel, ever since the 4th quarter of 2013 a large amount of hedgefunds held the stock as you can see from the chart below.  Hedgefunds held steady for 5 quarters and enjoyed healthy gains.Fast forward to today, American Airlines was under distribution in the first quarter of this year, the stock traded between $45-$55 and became volatile as oppose to the steady rise it had the previous quarter.  The funds owning the stocks decreased from [...]

By just looking at the indices $SPX, $COMPQ, $RUT, $DJ30, you really can't say anything negative about them, they are all trading near all time highs.  However, the breadth deterioration underneath the surface is real, not only have many stocks stop going up but we are now seeing an uptick in stocks going down.  The charts below tell you the whole story.The question is; is this information actionable right now?  The answer is no, at least for me its no. Breadth divergences have been going on for a while, it was the most popular topic for financial bloggers in 2013. [...]

Friday May 22nd I sat down with Benzinga and discussed lightly Deere corp, Twitter, Airline stocks, miners, and how i run my book, etc...Take a listen.

UVXY seeks the daily investment results that corresponds to two times daily performance of the SP500 VIX short term futures.  This is a horrible investment vehicle and only a good trading one once in a blue moon.  Recently, on 5/20/15 UVXY did a 1 for 5 reverse split.  The recent splits have come after months and months of UVXY being in a downtrend while the SP500 inversely in an uptrend. Splits on the UVXY are sort of like a throw in the towel situation which in the past has not bode well the SP500 in the short term.  There's only [...]

As the SP500 trades at all time highs many stocks underneath the surface are not participating, in fact the amount of stock up 25% for the quarter has been down-trending while stocks down 25% in the quarter have been ticking up as you can see on the chart below.Now, its not fair to take the breadth of pretty much the entire universe of stocks and compare it to the SP500 which only tracks 500 stocks, a comparison the Russell 2000 is more of a fair comparison. With the Russell 2000 we see the same thing.Divergences have been in place for [...]