The Fed will announce a possible rate hike today, the consensus believes they will raise rates by a quarter of a percent. No one knows how the market will react but here is how the SP500 reacted the last three times; 12/16/2015, 12/14/2016, 3/15/2017. One big pullback, two shallow ones. The good thing is, that we don’t need to know.
We are also coming into the second half of June which historically has been weak. Here is how the average June has played out since 1950 and in the past 20-years, chart by Ryan Detrick.
On the bright side, the Small Cap index (Russell 2000) has broken out of a 6-month base and it has been holding up well. The Russell 2000 has been underperforming relative to the SP500 and the Nasdaq. If the Russell 2000 continues to act well it will broaden out the breadth and finally, we can stop hearing about all the breadth negative divergences. Small caps is where the big percentage moves happen. This looks like the beginning of something bigger, and that’s a big plus.