frankz

So here we are, the markets are oversold by a few measures and all you read for the most part on the social media front is all the negative things that led to this pullback.  The guys who have been pounding the table consistently to short the market are patting themselves on the back, cnbc of course had someone calling for an 11% correction at a point where the market might be due for an oversold bounce.  The bullish guys who bombard us with with every single bullish stat they could come up with have gone AWOL with the studies [...]

The market is oversold at these levels based on the McClellan Oscillator, many are probably looking for a bounce based on this indicator.  To keep things simple the McClellan is used as a overbought/oversold indicator that like 99% of indicators works best and it is most useful as an oversold indicator. Telechart’s McClellan indicator closed yesterday at -221.11, readings of -200 are considered oversold and a level in which many including myself look for bounces that can be actionable but more importantly this is a place where I don’t want to initiate new shorts.Like most mean reversion set ups the [...]

Here are a few things you should know about this market;My watch-list continues to be small and the performance has been very weak, I’ve been harping on this all month.  This is my best health barometer for swing trading.The $RUT is below its 50 and 200 day moving average.We spoke about this over the weekend, we have more stocks down 25% for the quarter than up, currently we have 350 down, 513 up, amazing with the markets near all time highs. “The Bull Market Is Over For A Large Portion Of The Stock Market” –Brett SteenbargerTelechart’s McClellan Oscillator is near oversold levels, it [...]

I’m not a big fan of pointing out negative divergences because in a bull market it really doesn’t pay to take action based on them.  Look how many negative divergence articles we see on a weekly basis, tons, if you took action on them you are probably are not so happy right now.  And I know they read well and are sexy and make all the sense in the world.  However, negative divergences work best in markets that are in a correction, this market has not been in a correction in a long time.  Positive divergences work a whole lot [...]

Alibaba $BABA one of the most anticipated initial public offerings in a long time will start trading today, before you go gaga over the stock read this first; My 2 cents on Alibaba. If you find sometime to do some trades while you watch the $BABA opening while waiting for your Iphone 6, here is my trading list for today.$RLYP $CLVS $ENT $WDAY $N $WIX $AMZN $DDD $KING $NDLS $COUP $IMPV $SPLK $GWPH $VRNS$GRUB $ATHM $COH $CSLTThe Process;Every morning I go through a few of my scans to find buy candidates for the day.  Depending on the current state of the market the size of the list will vary, usually its no more than 50 names.  My process is based on market structure [...]

I have to say, the performance of my rolling 5 day watch-list has been weak.  The stocks that are breaking out are not following through, and this happens, the market is not going be on full throttle all the time.  You have probably heard the saying–”this is a market of stocks not a stock market”, well this is a stock market right now with very little stocks performing.  This part of the game and this is why you should always do your homework so when your time comes you recognize it and you capitalize on it.Today is a FED day [...]

Within my time-frame (1-20 days) the $RUT trading below its 10,20,50,200 day moving average is a big deal.  When this is the case I tend to press on the brakes and prefer mean reversion trades versus breakouts.  Breakouts tend to work below average under these circumstances.  The mean reversion trades should be in liquid known names, not your local small cap.  I’m talking about the big names from the DOW JONES, QQQ, SP500, the $TSLA‘S  $AAPL, $LNKD $GOOGL, $Z, $AMZN ETC…..Keep an eye on oversold/overbought indicators like the McClellan Oscillator, and % of stocks above their 10 day and 20 day ma’s, when they get to extended to [...]

The short term divergence that has been happening will probably catch up to the indices in the short term and it will probably cause a small pullback.  I am not a big fan of negative divergences in a bull market, I literally laugh out loud every time I see a blog post about it.  Eventually when we finally get more than just a normal pullback they will be right and we’ll never stop hearing about it.  In bull markets I believe that 99% of all negative divergences should be ignored until it is actually blatant, where it gets to a [...]

The list today looks promising if the names can get through yesterday’s high.I’m a big, big fan of liquid stocks that print an inside day; $YELP $DDD $NFLX $CMG $BIDU, trigger on all this is yesterday’s high plus .10 cents.Here is the entire list, and remember to follow the process; $HIMX $ZEN $MOBI $YELP $BIDU $CSUN $YGE $A$DDD $NEON $DSKY $ZSPH $CMG $NFLX $LITB $SWM $SWM $GOOGL $SCTY $LOCK $PNRA $GWPHMiscellaneous names; $QIHU mean reversion name with some call option activity, looking for it to get through 80 while using yesterday’s low as a stop.  $YY pulled back to the 20 day ma, looking to cheat at $90.50, $CTRPsimilar situation, looking to cheat at $65.30.  $ARCO another mean reversion play, through yesterday’s high, stop a yesterday’s low.The Process;Every morning I go [...]

Today we have a short list again…..And again the performance of the list was lackluster, some standouts from yesterday; $RGEN $VRNS $AMPH, nothing to brag about.  This should tell you something—stocks don’t have that short term momentum mojo, so you must act and execute accordingly.Today’s list; $MGT $UNTD $BCR $COUP $CA $DSW $GWPH $LOCO $NEON $LITB $BIDU $SOHU $SCTYThe ChartsThe Process;Every morning I go through a few of my scans to find buy candidates for the day.  Depending on the current state of the market the size of the list will vary, usually its no more than 50 names.  My process is based on market structure not on beliefs or myths of what works– or what [...]