frankz

Let’s review a few things that we tend to forget when the market goes down and we get emotional. • The market goes up and down, not up or down. The average bull market lasts about 8.9 years, and the average bear market about 1.3 years. • The average intra-year decline in the S&P 500 is 14%, and despite that, on a calendar-year basis, the S&P 500 closed higher 75% of the time. • Individual stocks are not the market. You need a plan for individual stocks. If you don’t know what to do, then set a 25% trailing stop [...]

We had a solid midday rebound in the works, but sellers regained control into the close, erasing most of the gains. Some data of interest: The U.S. total Put Option Volume hit a record high. To put that in context, it is higher now than during COVID-19 and the great financial crisis. Obama 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 Source: Bespoke Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 Source: Bespoke U.S. Stock Returns After Declining 10% or More. The key here is the return of the market, the S&P 500, not a random individual common stock. Time is your friend. Here’s what I’m watching [...]

The drip selling grinds on. A swift flush is always better than death by a thousand cuts. After today’s nasty Thursday, brace yourself for the inevitable chatter about the 1987 playbook: a sharp drop on Thursday, a flat Friday, a market crash on Monday, a Turnaround Tuesday, a retest of the lows a month later—then liftoff. Could another Black Monday happen? Absolutely. Given the current administration's rhetoric, they may not mind seeing the market tumble 20% if it means securing rate cuts and possibly even some fresh quantitative easing. 1990 1998 1999 2002 2003 2008 2010 2011 Here is a [...]

📊 Daily Market Recap – Mar 24, 2025 📈 Stocks popped on tariff relief optimism: On Monday, March 24, 2025, U.S. stock markets experienced significant gains, driven by optimism that the Trump administration might adopt a more targeted approach to upcoming tariffs. S&P 500 +1.8% Dow +1.4% Nasdaq +2.3% 🚀 $TSLA +11.9%, $NVDA, $AMZN, $META rallied A lot of overhead resistance looms above. Take it one day at a time. 💸 Crypto followed suit: BTC $87K (+1.6%) ETH $2,068 (+4.1%) DOGE +8% 🐶 SOL +4.6%📢 $MSTR buys 6,911 more BTC 💼 What to Watch Tomorrow 👀 📊 Data Drop: Fed [...]

The SPY and Nasdaq 100 were rejected right where you'd expect: at the confluence of the year-to-date anchored VWAP and the 21-day moving average. The bounce off the lows could be over for now. The Microsoft/NVDA and the possible April 2nd tariffs were to blame. “There are more jitters in the AI sector Wednesday after analysts at TD Cowen highlighted that their channel checks show Microsoft is canceling data center leases in the U.S. and Europe, following up on his earlier finding.” “President Trump made good on his promise to impose tariffs on foreign automakers, imposing 25% duties on all [...]

​The U.S. stock market experienced notable declines during the week ending March 28, 2025, influenced by escalating trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and weakening consumer sentiment.​ Market Performance: S&P 500: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed at $555.66, down 2% for the week.​ Dow Jones Industrial Average: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) ended at $415.62, marking a 1.7% weekly loss.​ Nasdaq Composite: The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) finished at $468.94, declining 2.7% over the week.​ Weekly Market Vibes: Mon:📈 Markets started strong as Trump’s tariffs weren’t as harsh as feared. 23andMe exits stage [...]

Q1 2025 Market Recap 🧵 1/ 📉 S&P 500: -4.6% — worst quarter since 2022. ​ 2/ 💥 Tech tumbles:​ • Tesla ($TSLA): -36%​ • Nvidia ($NVDA): -20%​ • Apple ($AAPL): -13%​ • Microsoft ($MSFT): -13%​ • Amazon ($AMZN): -15%​ • Alphabet ($GOOGL): -20%​ 3/ 📈 Energy sector: +9.3% — quarter's standout performer. 4/ 💸 Tariff tensions and stagflation fears roiled markets. ​ 5/ 📊 Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX): up 28% to ~22 — fear gauge elevated. ​ 6/ 🏦 Recession odds: 35% — Federal Reserve expected to cut rates. ​Reuters 7/ 📉 Invesco QQQ Trust ($QQQ): -8.2% — tracking [...]

The market opened with a gap down this morning, but bulls stepped in to fuel a solid intraday rebound. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) rallied off the lows at $554.81, climbing as high as $567.42 before settling at $564.65 by the close. However, sentiment shifted sharply after hours, with $SPY sliding to $544.82 in extended trading. The reason for the sentiment shift: Trump Declares “Liberation Day” with Sweeping Tariffs on U.S. Trade Partners “April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began [...]