frankz

I’m always focused on bases. Not because they’re pretty on a chart, but because compression is what funds expansion. Markets don’t move in straight lines—they coil first. Long-term bases, especially multi-year ones, are where some of the most powerful trend moves are born. We’ve talked about bases extensively here because they remain one of my highest-conviction technical setups. Stan Weinstein, in Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, defines a basing area like this: “After a stock has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What’s actually taking place is [...]

Last night I posted something simple: “Critical mining has my eye.” No headline.No news.Just what the screens were telling me. Less than 12 hours later, Bloomberg hit with this: The Trump Administration is planning to take additional stakes in U.S. minerals companies. That’s the narrative. But the important part is this: The trades were already on before the story broke. This is exactly what “finding stocks before they break out” actually means in practice — not prediction, not hype, just theme → execution → confirmation. The Theme Came First Critical metals and domestic resource independence have been quietly tightening under [...]

On December 3rd, I posted that OKLO and ASTS were stabilizing after deep drawdowns. No hype.No chasing.Just finding stocks before the breakout. This Is Exactly How These Trades Are Spotted These weren’t random momentum spikes. They came from: Drawdown stabilization Situational awareness Volatility compression Single-stock ETF exposure And We’re Already Tracking the Next Wave While most traders wait for confirmation, my Private Alpha Group is already positioned in: The next stabilization setups The next volatility expansions The next asymmetric opportunities Some people are too busy to trade during the day, and others don’t fully trust their execution. That’s why I [...]

Today had all the ingredients for a trend day higher — NVDA crushed earnings, and QQQ opened up $10. On paper, that should’ve set the tone. Instead, it turned into the sharpest intraday reversal we’ve seen in weeks. The first crack showed up outside equities. Bitcoin and Ethereum gave back their entire overnight gains before the bell, and to me, that was telling. It reminded me of last week when IWM was down $1 pre-market immediately after the government made progress on avoiding a shutdown. “Good news” didn’t matter — risk assets were already signaling trouble. Today had the same [...]

Yesteryear’s market is not today’s market. The headline indices have lulled people into thinking things are “fine,” but under the surface, it’s been a completely different story. Breadth has been atrocious. While the S&P barely blinked, a massive chunk of individual stocks quietly fell 30–40%. This past month was a perfect example: concentration masked the damage. Ten stocks are responsible for roughly 60% of this year’s S&P 500 gains. When the generals hold up, the army can collapse and nobody notices—until they check their portfolio. From the 10/29 peak to Friday’s trough, the S&P 500 slipped by just -3.82%.Meanwhile, high-beta [...]

Yesterday marked the worst breadth day ever for an “up” day in the S&P 500 — the index closed +0.23%, but under the surface, only 104 stocks were up while 398 were down. Since 1990, the S&P has never had a weaker internal reading on a positive day. Today: Same Story, Slight Bounce The divergence continues.The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) is up +0.52%, but the Equal Weight Nasdaq ($QQEW) is down –0.54% — that’s a massive split. Negative breadth doesn’t matter much to the indices until it hits the generals — $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $GOOGL, $AMZN — but it matters if [...]

One macro spark (trade tensions) and the fragile setup unwound. It was only a matter of time; you can feel it in the air. Breadth had been below its 5-day MA since late August. Indices kept grinding higher — the “market of stocks” quietly diverging from the “stock market.” FOMO was in full swing: names up 3, 4, 5 days in a row were being chased. Everyone knew it… But no one wanted to leave the party. The desperation to try to make up gains that were missed was palpable and apparent. You could read it on the timeline — [...]

You’ve heard the saying: “It’s not a stock market, it’s a market of stocks.”The last month and a half couldn’t have made that statement truer. Breadth, by many measures, has not been great. The numbers are flat, unimpressive, and definitely not representative of the action happening underneath the surface. Take a look: 📊 SPY vs. Stocks Above Their 40-Day Moving AverageIn the first chart, SPY has been in a steady uptrend, but the breadth figure (T2108) has been flatlining. That divergence has been irrelevant. Sometimes you have to stop listening to the indices and start listening to the stocks themselves. [...]

On September 9th, 2025, we posted this video when IONQ was trading at $43.05 👉 Wall Street Digest 9/9/25. Within two weeks, the stock surged to $76.13 — a monster run. We took profits along the way, but it also became a textbook case of over-extension and hype. That same day, we flipped the script. Instead of chasing, we initiated a short by going long IONZ, the 2x inverse ETF. Our average cost: $3.90. As excess has been released from the stock, we’ve been scaling out, selling into strength, and booking gains steadily. IONQ was not the only one we [...]

BTU – Peabody Energy Corp Filed by: Lee Ainslie, Maverick Capital Ownership: 6,647,830 shares (5.5%) Change: +6,615,395 shares (100% new) Filing: SC 13G | Event: 9/19 | Accepted: 9/26/25 WING – Wingstop Inc Filed by: Stephen Mandel, Lone Pine Capital Ownership: 1,491,245 shares (5.3%) Change: +1,491,245 shares (100% new) Filing: SC 13G | Event: 9/19 | Accepted: 9/26/25 ORKA – Oruka Therapeutics Inc Filed by: Andreas Halvorsen, Viking Global Ownership: 2,666,690 shares (5.5%) Change: +2,666,690 shares (100% new) Filing: SC 13G | Event: 9/17 | Accepted: 9/24/25 FORD – Forward Industries Inc Filed by: Tushar Jain, Multicoin Capital Ownership: 13,757,991 [...]