If yesterday’s rip-roaring rally wasn’t enough and you were not entertained, then—–
Tonight, Trump addresses the nation on Iran.
Here are the scenarios, what I’d assign to each, and how futures likely react:
60% — Declare victory, take the exit ramp. Graham, Rubio, Levin, Trump — all pivoting to “deal” at the same time. That’s not a coincidence, that’s coordination. Rubio dropping regime change and Hormuz from objectives is the tell. They’re narrowing the win conditions so they can say “mission accomplished” and leave. ES reaction: +50 to +100 pts. Risk-on rip. Oil dumps.
20% — One more strike. Hormuz or uranium sites as a final show of force before sitting down at the table. Maximum leverage play. ES reaction: -30 to -60 pts initially, but recovers if “deal” language follows. Oil spikes then fades.
12% — Just a primetime victory lap. Show the destruction footage, explain why, take credit, announce nothing new. ES reaction: +10 to +30 pts. Mild relief. Markets drift.
8% — Escalation. Ground troops, new front. You’d need 500K+ to actually take Iran. They have 5-10K in the region. The math doesn’t work. Public opinion doesn’t support it. This is the tail risk scenario. ES reaction: -100 to -200 pts. Oil rips. VIX explodes. Full risk-off.
The tell?
Ackman already said, “Buy stocks.”
Netanyahu said Iran is no longer a threat to Israel. Connected money and allied governments are front-running peace.
Watch ES futures during the address. The first 5 minutes of language will tell you everything you need to know.
