If you’re not catching themes, you’re just trading tickers.

Risk management keeps you in the game.
Position sizing keeps you solvent.
But catching 2–3 real themes a year is what compounds capital.

I made this point clearly almost 6 years ago in a video most people watched and then ignored:
👉

The market hasn’t changed. Human behavior hasn’t changed.
Only the themes do.


Over the weekend, markets digested major geopolitical news:

  • The arrest of Nicolás Maduro

Most traders made the obvious move:

  • Chase oil stocks

That’s first-order thinking.

Second-order effects are where the money is made.


The Stocks That Reacted Immediately (and Why)

MercadoLibre

Latin America’s Amazon.

Regime instability historically leads to:

  • Capital flight

  • Currency stress

  • Increased reliance on digital commerce

The stock didn’t wait. It moved right away.

Arcos Dorados, this is the one we nailed.


Another clean example:

  • Redwire ($RDW) SPACE
    Up ~45% in 5 days after we flagged it.


    If you want to see:

    • How I identify themes early

    • What I’m watching before they move

    • How I size and manage risk when themes confirm

    • CLICK ON THE PICTURE

Managed Assets

What I Actually Did in the 2025 U.S. Investing Championship