If you been following me for a while, you would know that when the market is under stress and going through a severe correction, I tend to get more active on social media, providing information that can help people navigate through the crisis. I’m not out there fear-mongering, mocking, or tooting my own horn, and like me, many continuously provide useful information and are genuinely trying to help people during stressful times. Follow me on Twitter for live updates. I’m going to share some of their tweets here, and then we will dive into some of the extreme breadth data that we had this week.
The Dow Jones had back to back 9% swings this week; we were -9% on Thursday and +9% on Friday, and we ended the week down -10%. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down -16.32% and -20.57 from its all-time that was registered on 2/19/2020.
Courtesy of ZeroHedge
The market when from all-time highs to a bear market (down -20% from highs) in only 19-days, the previous record was set in 1896 when it took 36 days, chart by Ryan Detrick
The VIX’s weekly RSI was at the highest level ever on March 13, higher than any time during the Great Financial Crisis, chart via SentimenTrader.
Due to the speed of the recent sell-off, we’ve witnessed some incredible breadth figures on Thursday, the likes that we have never seen before, let’s take a look ( this information was provided on twitter first on March 12,).
$GBTC premium, from a high of 41.42% on 2/18/20 to a paltry 13.81% today. When they need liquidity, they sell everything.
T2107 percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average is down to 4.09%.
Percent of stocks above their 40-day moving average stands at a paltry 1.69%.
Percent of stocks above their 40-day low print since 2002 = 1.20, which was on 10/09/08. That might have been the low for a lot of stocks but not the market.
So, T2108 (Stocks above 40-day) printed a low of 1.20 on 10/9/2008; the $SPY had a 14% dead cat bounce, but as you can see, it was not the ultimate low for the market.
2,525 stocks where down -4% or more yesterday, the highest print we got during the 4th 2018 meltdown was 1,386.
In the summer of 2011, when I believe we had China devaluation, that -4% number peaked at 2,483.
3,288 STOCKS are down -25% or more in the last 65-days, that number 100% higher than what it was just 4-days ago, unprecedented.
Here is the 2011 comparison, 2011, because that sell-off was also intense.
I can’t believe this next number. Usually, when you have 200-300 stocks down -25% or more in the last month that is PRETTY HIGH, bounce worthy, but not during this sell-off. As of yesterday, 2,434 stocks are down -25% or more in the last month. BANANAS.
Let me now hit you with the 2011 comparison, NOT EVEN CLOSE, at the peak of the sell-off, we had 1,110 stocks down -25% or more in the last month. As I said, it’s been a bruising market for some longs, but you have to appreciate what just happen.
Not since October 2008 have we seen a number this high, 365 stocks are down -50% or more in the last month.
Let me hit you with the 2011 comparison, during that nasty -20% sell-off that summer, stocks down -50% or more peaked at 45.
In case you forgot, this was 2008.
4,220 stocks printed fresh 1-month lows, I mean, what the heck, let me just show you all the data available for this data set.
3,926 stocks printed fresh 3-month lows, just appreciate the velocity of this sell-off.
Regardless of how bad things are the market goes up and down not up or down, even during the Great Financial Crisis the market experienced some vicious rallies, take a look at these charts from @alphatrends
Last week they channeled $137 billion into cash-like assets and a record $14 billion into government bonds in the five days through March 11, according to Bank of America Corp. research citing EPFR Global data. Truly a dash to cash.
The historic outflows from the BofA report:
1. Biggest IG + HY + EM debt outflow ever ($34.1bn)
2. Biggest cash inflow ever ($136.9bn)
3. Biggest government bond inflow ever ($13.9bn)
4. Biggest financial sector outflow ever ($3.3bn)
5. Second-biggest inflow to gold ever ($3.1bn)
We saw unprecedented action last week; volatility will continue, the market will trade up and down, stay nimble, and keep your wits.
I’ll leave you with this chart from Koyfin, we’ve been here before.